| Abstract | The shift from manufacturing labour to other employment sectors - previously a major cause of The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region's (SAR's) structural unemployment - has nearly come to an end. The gradual dissipation of structural unemployment in the future will help to alleviate pressure on the local labour market, but the unemployment rate will also become more responsive to cyclical factors, such as the current economic downturn. Resources devoted to retraining programmes, aimed at equipping the unemployed with skills required by society, will become increasingly less effective. Hong Kong's unemployment rate is expected to rise in 1998, but the level should be less than that of the previous economic downturn in 1995. With the gradual dissipation of structural unemployment and the reduced influx of returned migrants, the job market will be under relatively less pressure, despite reports of more lay-offs expected in the coming months, particularly in the highly visible retail sector. It is likely that the unemployment rate will reach the 3% level this year. |
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