| Abstract | In ordering military manoeuvres amounting to a quasi-blockade off Taiwan in March, did the Chinese leadership commit a major error of judgement? All the signs seem to suggest it. Firstly, Peking clearly did not anticipate such a strong US response, as is clear from the conciliatory statements made by Chinese generals following the deployment of two US aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Taiwan, which put a damper on the Chinese army's bluster. Secondly, Lee Teng-hui, who had been the target of abuse by Chinese propaganda press for months ("a traitor to the Chinese race", "to be consigned to the dustbin of history", etc.) has hardly emerged weakened from the crisis, indeed he is now stronger. Lastly, China's "missile diplomacy" will have had a lasting and therefore highly damaging effect on US public opinion, and hence on US-China relations in the long term. |
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