| Abstract | Forecasting in the rapidly changing telecommunications service industry where estimates of demand later shown to be wide of the mark are common place. Nevertheless, projection of demand of telecommunications services is required for operators planning their investment in the industry as well as for regulators all over the world. The service with the most vibrant growth, the cellular mobile telephone service, is expected to reach 2,000,000 subscribers by mid 1998. The traditional paging service, currently with about 1100,000 subscribers, may remain static after a phenomenal growth in the last decade. For the next five years, the number of residential telephone lines will maintain a steady growth of 3.9% per year while business lines will grow at a higher rate of about 7%. As for new services, it is projected that the narrowband ISDN (2B+D) will respectively attract over 12,000 customers by end 1998. |
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